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The One Face of Paul Pierce
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Saturday, October 30, 2010
A Rose By Any Other Name...
Viewing Threadzilla from the outside gives me a different perspective and allows me more time to soak in some of the debates you guys are having without being too reactionary.
Some of the posts I've read about Derrick Rose lately have been really, really bad. It makes sense that a group of poker players, obsessed with making good decisions, would underrate dumb players while at the same time usually overrate smart ones. This is the only explanation I could think of for why guys are lauding Gordon Hayward already and Rose continually receives tons of hate. What's funny, is that most of you would probably call Rose a bad decision maker and you'd be completely wrong.
While Rose does have some frustrating flaws in his game, he correctly does a lot of great things for his team, mostly in the form of scoring (which tends to be pretty important). I'm no Rose fan myself, so I'm hoping I can maybe shed some light on his game and stop some of my respected TZ buddies from looking foolish and assigning him labels like "actively hurts his team."
The most common misconception with Rose's game is that he is wrongly taking 2-point jumpers and floaters. While correct that these shots are usually worse than threes and layups/dunks, a quick look of shot locations (via HoopData and assembled into a spreadsheet by Jack of Arcades) shows that Rose is actually fantastic on his floaters.
As someone named JalapenoBag asked in Threadzilla: "i think rose is pretty good. but the one thing i can't stand is his stupid floater. why doesn't he ever just take it all the way?"
The data shows that Rose's "<10 feet" shots are worth 1.15 points per shot. This category excludes shots at the rim, so most floaters definitely land here. For some context, Zach Randolph's "At Rim" shot and Chauncey Billup's threes were worth 1.16 points per shot last year. Given how good Rose's floater is and how difficult it is to prevent, I feel comfortable saying it is one of the best offensive weapons in the game.
Now I assume his haters will point to his weaker, longer jump shots as the problem. Rose took 540 jumpers from 16-23 feet last year. This is second most in the league behind Dirk Nowitzki. That sounds troubling from a guy most would classify as a poor jump shooter. However, Rose shot 44% on them, good for .88 points per shot. Want some comparisons? How about Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony? All three of these guys took more than 400 shots from this distance and they all shot worse than Rose (Durant .74, Kobe .82, and Carmelo .80). Now I'm not calling Rose as good as these guys, but he's being criminally underrated in the thread.
Rose certainly has his issues too, but I think they're solvable. The biggest improvement to his game could come from either finishing better at the rim, or getting to the line more. These two really go hand-in-hand in Rose's case. If you watch him play, you'll notice he attempts many acrobatic plays around the rim. While these will land him on SportsCenter a lot, they're not really all that helpful to him or his team. If he could learn to embrace contact in his finishing attempts instead of dodging it, he'll get to the line more and become a real nightmare to defend.
It's not fair to hold Rose's TS% against him (compared to guys like Nash and Deron) without crediting him for operating at a much higher usage while turning it over even less. Given how damaging turnovers are, it's annoying that guys that pass a lot (and thus turn it over a lot) get credited with being unselfish and smart with the ball. Just because he isn't a typical point and is very much scoring minded doesn't mean he doesn't belong in the top echelon. His scoring is more valuable than most other point guard's passing. I also do think his assist numbers will improve as he now has some better offensive teammates to work with. Hopefully this comes in the form of more of his passes converted into points and not more passes from him in general though.
Some of the posts I've read about Derrick Rose lately have been really, really bad. It makes sense that a group of poker players, obsessed with making good decisions, would underrate dumb players while at the same time usually overrate smart ones. This is the only explanation I could think of for why guys are lauding Gordon Hayward already and Rose continually receives tons of hate. What's funny, is that most of you would probably call Rose a bad decision maker and you'd be completely wrong.
While Rose does have some frustrating flaws in his game, he correctly does a lot of great things for his team, mostly in the form of scoring (which tends to be pretty important). I'm no Rose fan myself, so I'm hoping I can maybe shed some light on his game and stop some of my respected TZ buddies from looking foolish and assigning him labels like "actively hurts his team."
The most common misconception with Rose's game is that he is wrongly taking 2-point jumpers and floaters. While correct that these shots are usually worse than threes and layups/dunks, a quick look of shot locations (via HoopData and assembled into a spreadsheet by Jack of Arcades) shows that Rose is actually fantastic on his floaters.
As someone named JalapenoBag asked in Threadzilla: "i think rose is pretty good. but the one thing i can't stand is his stupid floater. why doesn't he ever just take it all the way?"
The data shows that Rose's "<10 feet" shots are worth 1.15 points per shot. This category excludes shots at the rim, so most floaters definitely land here. For some context, Zach Randolph's "At Rim" shot and Chauncey Billup's threes were worth 1.16 points per shot last year. Given how good Rose's floater is and how difficult it is to prevent, I feel comfortable saying it is one of the best offensive weapons in the game.
Now I assume his haters will point to his weaker, longer jump shots as the problem. Rose took 540 jumpers from 16-23 feet last year. This is second most in the league behind Dirk Nowitzki. That sounds troubling from a guy most would classify as a poor jump shooter. However, Rose shot 44% on them, good for .88 points per shot. Want some comparisons? How about Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony? All three of these guys took more than 400 shots from this distance and they all shot worse than Rose (Durant .74, Kobe .82, and Carmelo .80). Now I'm not calling Rose as good as these guys, but he's being criminally underrated in the thread.
Rose certainly has his issues too, but I think they're solvable. The biggest improvement to his game could come from either finishing better at the rim, or getting to the line more. These two really go hand-in-hand in Rose's case. If you watch him play, you'll notice he attempts many acrobatic plays around the rim. While these will land him on SportsCenter a lot, they're not really all that helpful to him or his team. If he could learn to embrace contact in his finishing attempts instead of dodging it, he'll get to the line more and become a real nightmare to defend.
It's not fair to hold Rose's TS% against him (compared to guys like Nash and Deron) without crediting him for operating at a much higher usage while turning it over even less. Given how damaging turnovers are, it's annoying that guys that pass a lot (and thus turn it over a lot) get credited with being unselfish and smart with the ball. Just because he isn't a typical point and is very much scoring minded doesn't mean he doesn't belong in the top echelon. His scoring is more valuable than most other point guard's passing. I also do think his assist numbers will improve as he now has some better offensive teammates to work with. Hopefully this comes in the form of more of his passes converted into points and not more passes from him in general though.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Erebody PANIC!!!
Ok, don't panic yet. It's only 1 or 2 games in and two teams seem to stick out as "in trouble". Perhaps because they both got housed last night, but both the 'Zards and the Jazz have their fans in this position:
I'm going to try and talk you back onto the ledge.
Wizards - Much like the Heat on opening night, it's hard to imagine them starting out in a game which will make them look worse. As Assani pointed out, the Wizards were 13.5 point underdogs so them getting blown out is not exactly a surprise. Further, against a good defensive team (which the Magic surely are) the absence of Arenas is only more magnified as he's the only guy who's truly dangerous against a set defense. Wall isn't there yet, as seen by the Magic's willingness to give him every 18 footer he wanted. Blatche is Blatche and neither McGee nor Hinrich are creators. Further, Washington finishing the season with a "mediocre but not wretched" record won't be determined by their record at Orlando, Miami, Boston and the Lakers - those are games that aren't realistically winnable for the Non-Impressive Nine at the bottom end of the Eastern conference. So while the manner of the loss was certainly disheartening for the Wiz, it's still just one loss in a game they were never going to win anyway.
Jazz - Unfortunately for the Jazz, they've looked really bad, twice. And have done so against two of the Western teams many thought most primed for declines in Phoenix and Denver. However, it might not quite be that bad. Jefferson and Millsap have the makings of a nice pairing and if Okur can give anything (especially floor spacing) when he returns those three (along with whatever minutes Kirilenko gives them at the 4) comprise a pretty solid, if somewhat defensively deficient, big man rotation. No, Utah's problems lay on the perimeter. Deron was a little nicked up in the preseason, as well as missing some time with "personal issues" whatever that means, and it shows, as he is not making shots and not looking totally in sync. Raja Bell is somewhere between zombified and mummified at the moment, though one has to imagine that he won't shoot this badly for the entire season. CJ Miles is a trainwreck. Gordon Hayward is probably their lone bright spot on the wings thus far as he looks an actual NBA player. But he's raw and suspect defensively against quick players.
So where is the optimism? Well, Deron will get better. Hayward will get his legs and start to take Miles' minutes. Bell will either be better or out of the rotation, as Ronnie Price is probably a better option if Bell is as done as he looks. (In fact Price would provide the added benefit of allowing Deron to guard 2 guards which is a better matchup for him vs. most teams due to his size and strength.) And perhaps there might even be a move to be made for a quality wing player. Rip Hamilton's name has been mentioned, though his awful contract makes that less likely. Another possibility might be Lou Williams, as Philly has 2 too many wing players demanding minutes at the moment. Maybe even someone like Bill Walker, who appears to be out of favor in New York? Or, you know, keep $30million Man Wes Matthews...
I'm going to try and talk you back onto the ledge.
Wizards - Much like the Heat on opening night, it's hard to imagine them starting out in a game which will make them look worse. As Assani pointed out, the Wizards were 13.5 point underdogs so them getting blown out is not exactly a surprise. Further, against a good defensive team (which the Magic surely are) the absence of Arenas is only more magnified as he's the only guy who's truly dangerous against a set defense. Wall isn't there yet, as seen by the Magic's willingness to give him every 18 footer he wanted. Blatche is Blatche and neither McGee nor Hinrich are creators. Further, Washington finishing the season with a "mediocre but not wretched" record won't be determined by their record at Orlando, Miami, Boston and the Lakers - those are games that aren't realistically winnable for the Non-Impressive Nine at the bottom end of the Eastern conference. So while the manner of the loss was certainly disheartening for the Wiz, it's still just one loss in a game they were never going to win anyway.
Jazz - Unfortunately for the Jazz, they've looked really bad, twice. And have done so against two of the Western teams many thought most primed for declines in Phoenix and Denver. However, it might not quite be that bad. Jefferson and Millsap have the makings of a nice pairing and if Okur can give anything (especially floor spacing) when he returns those three (along with whatever minutes Kirilenko gives them at the 4) comprise a pretty solid, if somewhat defensively deficient, big man rotation. No, Utah's problems lay on the perimeter. Deron was a little nicked up in the preseason, as well as missing some time with "personal issues" whatever that means, and it shows, as he is not making shots and not looking totally in sync. Raja Bell is somewhere between zombified and mummified at the moment, though one has to imagine that he won't shoot this badly for the entire season. CJ Miles is a trainwreck. Gordon Hayward is probably their lone bright spot on the wings thus far as he looks an actual NBA player. But he's raw and suspect defensively against quick players.
So where is the optimism? Well, Deron will get better. Hayward will get his legs and start to take Miles' minutes. Bell will either be better or out of the rotation, as Ronnie Price is probably a better option if Bell is as done as he looks. (In fact Price would provide the added benefit of allowing Deron to guard 2 guards which is a better matchup for him vs. most teams due to his size and strength.) And perhaps there might even be a move to be made for a quality wing player. Rip Hamilton's name has been mentioned, though his awful contract makes that less likely. Another possibility might be Lou Williams, as Philly has 2 too many wing players demanding minutes at the moment. Maybe even someone like Bill Walker, who appears to be out of favor in New York? Or, you know, keep $30million Man Wes Matthews...
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Hate List
I get accused of being a "hater" a lot. It's a fair enough charge. But, I have my reasons, man. So, in the interest of tracking my "hating" in the new season, I thought I'd list some of my "targets"
- David Kahn/Timberwolves future: I've been pretty open in my mockery of Kahn since his laughable handling of the Rubio situation, both immediately following the draft and since then. It's not exactly difficult to rip off a list of the substantive moves he's made that look, well, odd:
- drafting Rubio apparently without a plan;
- immediately following by taking a second PG who he had probably only seen play once who was self-evidently a terrible fit for the offense his newly picked coach wished to run;
- sign yet a third point guard in Ramon Sessions to ensure the second point guard had as little trade value as possible;
- talk down the ability of his two best players (Love and Jefferson) to play together;
- sign Darko;
- pass on DeMarcus Cousins to draft Wesley Johnson (which may have made sense if he wasn't about to acquire Michael Beasley in an admittedly decent move which showed he could help build a winner, in Miami, or if he wasn't hell-bent on trading Jefferson for pennies on the dollar); and
- make said deal which sent Jefferson to Utah.
According to a league source, the Timberwolves have asked the NBA to look into whether Portland knowingly traded them an injured player when the Blazers dealt Martell Webster to Minnesota for the 16th overall pick in last summer's draft.Because due diligence is hard. Yet for some reason, hope springs not quite eternal in Minny, but still it springs. Because they have a plan. All evidence to the contrary. Hate rating: A+Webster on Monday underwent surgery to repair a disk in his back and is expected to miss about six weeks. He said the injury dates to last spring's playoffs, when he was undercut and fell hard in a game against Phoenix.
The Wolves are likely looking for a draft pick as compensation.
- Brandon Jennings: Ok, he's already better than I thought he would be. While that not be saying that much yet, I'll admit that I missed on this one a little (which may turn into "a lot" if he learns how to shoot). Hate Rating: C+
- Atlanta Hawks: I don't hate the Hawks, I really don't. I just look at their roster and see a not-quite superstar two guard getting paid as if he were, an undersized center who they don't seem sure what to do with, and an all-world talent in Josh Smith who is at least an all-continent knucklehead. Jamal Crawford is both not really that good, and not especially likely to duplicate his performance from last season. Mike Bibby is D-O-N-E. They are going to put up a decent record in a terrible Eastern conference and have no real shot at doing anything meaningful in the post season. Not hate, just real talk. Hate Rating: D+
- Tyeke Evans: I think he'll have a fine career as a stat whore on bad-to-mediocre teams. Which is perfectly fine, but some were comparing him to a young Dwyane Wade last season. Simmer down, now. Hate Rating: B+
- Andray Blatche: Similar to Tyreke, but with a much more demonstrable history of knuckleheadedness. Congratulations, you were the least awful option for the Wizards during the franchise's nuclear winter. That doesn't make you good. It makes you Cory Maggette minus the awesome nickname. Hate Rating: A-
- Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton: I don't think either are necessarily bad players, I just think that the explosion both experienced during the second half of last year doesn't really tell us much. The analogy I'd use is that they were pitchers called up by non-contenders in late August who blew through the league the fist time through. Now that people have seen their stuff, they might start to get knocked around a little bit. Hate Rating: C+
- LakerFan: Like I need an explanation for this. Hate Rating: A+++
Nets vs. Pistons Recap
Nets
In the historically bad 12-win season last year, Devin Harris looked like a shell of his former self. He was banged up all year long and it looked like he might have permanently lost a step on account of his injuries. He looked much better tonight though. He seemed to have all of his quickness back and was getting in the lane at will. In the first half he was a little too passive but he came out more determined to score in the second half and it really made a difference. There is no reason to think he can’t be a top ten PG this year.
Despite his 25/9 game, Brook Lopez was not very good. He was bullied by Ben Wallace all game and was pretty harmful to his team outside of one really nice stretch in the third quarter. The broadcaster mentioned that he caught mononucleosis in the summer and lost 15 pounds. He was already a finesse (soft) big coming into the season and that type of weight loss certainly won't help.
Terrence Williams made a ton of mistakes, but he also is a really dynamic player who can make it just as hard on the defense as he makes it easy. If he can knockout even just 1-2 turnovers per game, it will help immensely. It was interesting that he pretty much ran the point even with Jordan Farmar out there. If T-Will can pass more selectively he's a pretty effective creator. These are all huge ifs though. Farmar had a pretty good game. This will sound cheesy, but I feel like there is value in playing championship minutes like Farmar has the last two years. It just brings a different type of culture into the team and it kind of radiated from Farmar as he played with a lot of confidence. He hit a really big three in the middle of the Nets 9-0 comeback run at the end. Anthony Morrow hit the game winner and was solid throughout while Travis Outlaw was terrible on both ends.
I was pleasantly surprised with Derrick Favors. He looked very raw in the preseason and I thought it would be a while before he could be effective. He made me look wrong last night though. He crushed on the offensive glass and really played well in his limited minutes. It seemed like the annoying case of coaches just hating rookies and keeping them on the bench just because they are rookies. It was crystal clear that Favors is much better than Joe Smith and Kris Humphries and it was foolish to not let him play more.
Pistons
They still don’t realize what they have in Ben Gordon. They used him better in the second half, but far too many possessions came and went without the ball touching Gordon’s hands. He looked healthy and should definitely bounce back after a down year last season. If they don’t use him better, they really aren’t going to win many games. They had a chance to tie the game with a three at the end and Charlie Villanueva took the shot instead of Gordon. The team seems poorly coached and too reliant on mediocre players like Rodney Stuckey to create offense. Ben Wallace really looked like he hasn’t lost much of his value. He played a fantastic game defensively.
Austin Daye looked stronger than last year (not saying much) but he was still in over his head as a starting PF. This team will miss Jerebko a decent amount. I don't know why Greg Monroe didn't play, but if he wasn't hurt then we have another case of irrational rookie hate from John Kuester. This team is going nowhere this year and they need to get Monroe some time to help his development.
In the historically bad 12-win season last year, Devin Harris looked like a shell of his former self. He was banged up all year long and it looked like he might have permanently lost a step on account of his injuries. He looked much better tonight though. He seemed to have all of his quickness back and was getting in the lane at will. In the first half he was a little too passive but he came out more determined to score in the second half and it really made a difference. There is no reason to think he can’t be a top ten PG this year.
Despite his 25/9 game, Brook Lopez was not very good. He was bullied by Ben Wallace all game and was pretty harmful to his team outside of one really nice stretch in the third quarter. The broadcaster mentioned that he caught mononucleosis in the summer and lost 15 pounds. He was already a finesse (soft) big coming into the season and that type of weight loss certainly won't help.
Terrence Williams made a ton of mistakes, but he also is a really dynamic player who can make it just as hard on the defense as he makes it easy. If he can knockout even just 1-2 turnovers per game, it will help immensely. It was interesting that he pretty much ran the point even with Jordan Farmar out there. If T-Will can pass more selectively he's a pretty effective creator. These are all huge ifs though. Farmar had a pretty good game. This will sound cheesy, but I feel like there is value in playing championship minutes like Farmar has the last two years. It just brings a different type of culture into the team and it kind of radiated from Farmar as he played with a lot of confidence. He hit a really big three in the middle of the Nets 9-0 comeback run at the end. Anthony Morrow hit the game winner and was solid throughout while Travis Outlaw was terrible on both ends.
I was pleasantly surprised with Derrick Favors. He looked very raw in the preseason and I thought it would be a while before he could be effective. He made me look wrong last night though. He crushed on the offensive glass and really played well in his limited minutes. It seemed like the annoying case of coaches just hating rookies and keeping them on the bench just because they are rookies. It was crystal clear that Favors is much better than Joe Smith and Kris Humphries and it was foolish to not let him play more.
Pistons
They still don’t realize what they have in Ben Gordon. They used him better in the second half, but far too many possessions came and went without the ball touching Gordon’s hands. He looked healthy and should definitely bounce back after a down year last season. If they don’t use him better, they really aren’t going to win many games. They had a chance to tie the game with a three at the end and Charlie Villanueva took the shot instead of Gordon. The team seems poorly coached and too reliant on mediocre players like Rodney Stuckey to create offense. Ben Wallace really looked like he hasn’t lost much of his value. He played a fantastic game defensively.
Austin Daye looked stronger than last year (not saying much) but he was still in over his head as a starting PF. This team will miss Jerebko a decent amount. I don't know why Greg Monroe didn't play, but if he wasn't hurt then we have another case of irrational rookie hate from John Kuester. This team is going nowhere this year and they need to get Monroe some time to help his development.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Day 2 According to Dschmeidreu
Or, as we like to call him, Brittany's BF:
That's about the size of it.
NBA Headlines Night 2
For the lazy donks who don't want to NBA or go on yahoo to read recaps
1. Rose sucks at defense
2. Monta Ellis loves to shoot the ball.......a lot......and play absurd minutes
3. lol boston
4. Brook Lopez all star for sure one time
5. CLEVELAND could make the playoffs?! Interesting
6. Horford blows
7. Poor houston........team has a ton of potential though, but like, how about some defense? Allowed average of 122 points in their first 2 games
8. Blake Griffin = all star Clippers = still going to suck
9. AARON AFFALO
10. Parker/Duncan/GINOBLIIIII/Jefferson looking like the Big 4?
That's about the size of it.
Greear10 vs Thayer Prop Bet
After boasting of Austin Daye's "unlimited range," Greear10 backed up his comments with a prop bet offer:
GREEAR10
thay3r i might be interested in a 3pt % bet daye vs gallo. u interested?
THAY3R
Yes, must shoot 80 of them to qualify. $xxx?
GREEAR10
lets round those #s off a little. 100 to qualify for $x,xxx?
THAY3R
Deal/Booked etc.
You ****ing idiot
GREEAR10
thay3r i might be interested in a 3pt % bet daye vs gallo. u interested?
THAY3R
Yes, must shoot 80 of them to qualify. $xxx?
GREEAR10
lets round those #s off a little. 100 to qualify for $x,xxx?
THAY3R
Deal/Booked etc.
You ****ing idiot
Random Day One Overreactions
1) The Celtics are who we thought they were. They are going to defend. They are going to knock people on their asses. Unfortunately, they are also going to keep teams in games especially if Doc continues to give us more of the "oh shit" lineups with which he opened the 4th quarter (Rondo/Nate/Queesy/FFD/JoN) - they were one Ilgauskas questionably moving screen away from only being up 3 in a game they had more or less dominated.
2) Relatedly, as bad as Miami played last night (and it was really, really, bad. Everybody point and laugh at Chris Bosh, "superstar"), they were still right there because Lebron is just that good, and once Wade gets his sea legs, even good teams are going to have to play better than the Celtics did last night to get it done.
3) That said, the Heat made the cromagnon offense Mike Brown ran in Cleveland look revolutionary. And their interior defense is...not good. Again, everyone laugh at Bosh as the "anchor" of a defense. This team has holes, and unfortunately for them, those holes play very much into the hands of the other top teams (Magic, Celtics, Lakers). It's very possible that they are good enough in other areas to overcome this, but a lot of the "crown their ass" type stuff from the preseason will hopefully subside a bit.
4) Moving on to other games, Nic Batum! My man. Also according to BlazerNation, Wes Matthews justified the entire $30 million of his contract in one night. He was that good! Blazers 82-0!!!!111one!1!1!
5) Adelman needs to do a better job of managing Yao's mythical 24 minutes so that he isn't done with 7 minutes to go. Though to be fair to Adelman, it's possible he did it that way because Yao was A) in foul trouble; B) a foulbox so he was just going to play him until the inevitable hackfest. Houston's gunner guards (Martin and Lee, looking at you) should also probably recognize that 19 foot pull-ups with 16 on the shot clock are pretty bad shots when Yao is on the floor.
6) LakerFan continues to make my head asplode. Let the overrating of Shannon Brown, superstar, commence. That said, Steve Blake was a truly massive pickup for them. Even aside from the game winner (that pass was 147% intended for Pau, btw), the viable "gee, let's just let our PG torch Derek Fisher's corpse" has been taken off the table for an end of game strategy. Even though Fisher is going to keep his starting job, Phil Jax has already signalled that Blake is probably his finisher against teams with dynamic PGs.
What did everyone else think?
2) Relatedly, as bad as Miami played last night (and it was really, really, bad. Everybody point and laugh at Chris Bosh, "superstar"), they were still right there because Lebron is just that good, and once Wade gets his sea legs, even good teams are going to have to play better than the Celtics did last night to get it done.
3) That said, the Heat made the cromagnon offense Mike Brown ran in Cleveland look revolutionary. And their interior defense is...not good. Again, everyone laugh at Bosh as the "anchor" of a defense. This team has holes, and unfortunately for them, those holes play very much into the hands of the other top teams (Magic, Celtics, Lakers). It's very possible that they are good enough in other areas to overcome this, but a lot of the "crown their ass" type stuff from the preseason will hopefully subside a bit.
4) Moving on to other games, Nic Batum! My man. Also according to BlazerNation, Wes Matthews justified the entire $30 million of his contract in one night. He was that good! Blazers 82-0!!!!111one!1!1!
5) Adelman needs to do a better job of managing Yao's mythical 24 minutes so that he isn't done with 7 minutes to go. Though to be fair to Adelman, it's possible he did it that way because Yao was A) in foul trouble; B) a foulbox so he was just going to play him until the inevitable hackfest. Houston's gunner guards (Martin and Lee, looking at you) should also probably recognize that 19 foot pull-ups with 16 on the shot clock are pretty bad shots when Yao is on the floor.
6) LakerFan continues to make my head asplode. Let the overrating of Shannon Brown, superstar, commence. That said, Steve Blake was a truly massive pickup for them. Even aside from the game winner (that pass was 147% intended for Pau, btw), the viable "gee, let's just let our PG torch Derek Fisher's corpse" has been taken off the table for an end of game strategy. Even though Fisher is going to keep his starting job, Phil Jax has already signalled that Blake is probably his finisher against teams with dynamic PGs.
What did everyone else think?
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Labor Issues, 7 Team League Pass, and LBJ's commercial
In the CastZilla linked below, JoA, Tarheels and I discussed some other topics which were apparently lost to technical difficulties. I thought the colloquies were worth summarizing as good points were made.
On the first front, the issues of the impending lockout, CBA restructuring, and contraction, we were all in agreement that contraction isn't really on the table - yet. If a work stoppage were to take longer than a full season (kill me now) then maybe the league comes back with fewer teams. But until then, contraction seems a poor way to redress the league's alleged economic woes - yes the league as a whole saves perhaps $75 million in player salaries per year per team contracted, but it also loses the revenues of 41 home games, plus local tv and radio rights a certain amount of jersey sales and so on.
Edit: TSC raises good points here:
Further, the teams contracted wouldn't just vanish - there is no way an owner is just going to walk away from his franchise like a homeowner upside-down on his mortgage when other franchises are still selling for hundreds of millions of dollars. So the remaining owners would almost certainly have to make large payments to the owners being contracted, which further eats away at the "savings".
Finally, the league doesn't really [b]need[/b] contraction from a competitive sense. Whereas in the late 90s and early 2000s there may have been a dearth of NBA ready talent to fill out the 8 or so rotation spots per team, due in part to teams spending draftpicks on raw highschoolers or large and largely unknown Eastern Euros, we are in something of a golden age with respect to talent as the overseas game (and more importantly, scouting of that game) continues to improve at the same time we have had several successive deep crops of rookie players. While the Jared Dudley's and Carlos Delfino's of the world are not superstars, they are professional basketball players. Where teams can't field full rotations of minimally competent NBA players, the reason is no longer a shortage of good players but rather a failure of management (KAHHHHHHHHN!) or purposefully bottoming out (the Knicks of recent seasons).
Realistically, contraction would present more of a competitive problem than it would solve. Of the first franchises on the chopping block, two would likely be New Orleans and Sacramento - how does the league go about reassigning the marquee assets of those teams (CP3, DMC, Tyreke)? All of a sudden the Clippers add Paul to Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon virtually for free? You think this ISN'T what the league would like to see happen?
In actuality, this is merely Stern-Bot 2k11 threatening the NBAPA with 30-60 fewer jobs if they don't cave to the owners demands. Similar to the claimed 33% reduction in salary, it's a bargaining position and likely nothing more. As to what actually happens to next season, I think Etats360 outlined the most likely scenario a few weeks ago:
The only thing I'd add to point 4 is that the owners costs go down dramatically during a lockout, whereas the players (cars, houses, child support, entourages) likely do not.
---
Moving on to 7 team league pass, JOA grabbed the following list of "non League Pass Broadband games" (ABC, ESPN, TNT, NBATV) to demonstrate which teams are best value for money if one is choosing the "7 team" package for league pass broadband:
Boston: 33
Miami Heat: 29
Orlando: 29
LA Lakers: 27
Chicago: 27
Thunder: 25
Suns: 25
Dallas: 24
Spurs 23
Blazers: 21
Knicks: 18
Jazz: 17
Hawks: 14
Clipper: 12
Rockets: 11
Bucks 8
Hornets: 7
Kings: 7
Grizzlies: 6
with a few not listed. The best values in terms of entertainment + most games would be Clips, Bucks, Warriors, Kings, Wizards, Hornets and either Grizzlies or Jazz in my opinion.
---
Finally, we talked at some length about the LBJ commercial:
For me, this is a really good commercial and getting a little further in depth (hopefully for the last time), it does make sort of sideways glances at a few important points:
1) For all the hate he's gotten this summer, he didn't actually do anything. Yeah, "The Decision" was poor in conception and douchey in execution, but he's not an actual criminal, like Mike Vick, Big Ben* or Kobe* have been before him. Nor does he have obvious and severe issues a la Tiger (no way we know even close to the whole story on that, but that's a whole other topic). So, "what do you want me to do?" is a perfectly reasonable question for him to ask. I he had stayed in Cleveland, dollars to donuts, the same people ripping him for "ring chasing" would be ripping him for not caring about winning. Had he gone to New York, it would have been chasing "global icon" status. In short, ESPN is the GOAT LeBron troll.
* allegedly though we can't talk about it due to a sealed private settlement in a civil suit.
2) That said, there's a middle ground between "stop listening to my friends" and abdicating his decisions to the Nike marketing department. Assuming that his lifelong friends are real and absolutely have LeBron's best interests at heart, that loyalty is not a perfect substitute for experience and expertise. With some trusted professional guidance, "The Decision" could have come off a lot better. For example, if he really was making his announcement that way "for the kids," why not involve the kids? The optics of the whole situation change if it's one or a procession of 15 year-olds tossing him the same softball questions Jim Gray did. As noted above, haters were going to hate, but that doesn't mean he had to do things in a way sure to promote maximal ire.
3) Really, who the hell is anyone else to tell him he's wrong for deciding to play for championships with D-Wade, Bosh and the merry band of redshirts? While you or I or MJ or Bill Simmons or whoever may have done things differently, it's his choice to make, and until we've walked a mile in shoes, it's just like, our opinion, man.
4) Finally, speaking of MJ, the playful shot at Charles Barkley with the "not a role model" and the pink donut is pretty obvious. Less obvious and harder hitting was the shot at MJ's horrifically bitter Hall-of-Fame induction speech. A welcome reminder that Michael was no prince, but the media in his day was largely sycophantic, with the closest thing to being a hater was Sam Smith. Rereading The Jordan Rules it's like a Suzy Kolber puff piece compared to the lunatic ravings of Skip Bayless, et al that Lebron has to deal with. So again, LBJ probably has some grounds to ask of MJ "who the fuck do you think you are to tell me how to live?"
---
So that's what you missed, hopefully we get the technology better next time.
On the first front, the issues of the impending lockout, CBA restructuring, and contraction, we were all in agreement that contraction isn't really on the table - yet. If a work stoppage were to take longer than a full season (kill me now) then maybe the league comes back with fewer teams. But until then, contraction seems a poor way to redress the league's alleged economic woes - yes the league as a whole saves perhaps $75 million in player salaries per year per team contracted, but it also loses the revenues of 41 home games, plus local tv and radio rights a certain amount of jersey sales and so on.
Edit: TSC raises good points here:
Wouldn't the focus be on teams that are already losing tons of money and/or in markets that aren't generating large amounts of revenue. There is more than just losing revenue, these teams have expenses that are far exceeding revenues because they have to fund operations in stadiums that aren't close to capacity. Not to mention their stadium deals may not be ideal (not sure on specifics here). I really have no clue how much local TV/Radio revenue we are talking about here, but I doubt its that much in these two markets (Sac and NO). Jersey sales is meh since that can be transfered to another team since the big name stars on those teams would be playing elsewhere and selling jersey's elsewhere (I would assume).To be clear, I don't disagree with any of this analysis - the league may wish to investigate whether some of these are viable markets for teams with current ownership in place. But, that's really a separate discussion from the context in which Stern raised the issue and that is the impending CBA. In that regard, it's nothing more than a big stick to swing at the players' union.
Further, the teams contracted wouldn't just vanish - there is no way an owner is just going to walk away from his franchise like a homeowner upside-down on his mortgage when other franchises are still selling for hundreds of millions of dollars. So the remaining owners would almost certainly have to make large payments to the owners being contracted, which further eats away at the "savings".
Finally, the league doesn't really [b]need[/b] contraction from a competitive sense. Whereas in the late 90s and early 2000s there may have been a dearth of NBA ready talent to fill out the 8 or so rotation spots per team, due in part to teams spending draftpicks on raw highschoolers or large and largely unknown Eastern Euros, we are in something of a golden age with respect to talent as the overseas game (and more importantly, scouting of that game) continues to improve at the same time we have had several successive deep crops of rookie players. While the Jared Dudley's and Carlos Delfino's of the world are not superstars, they are professional basketball players. Where teams can't field full rotations of minimally competent NBA players, the reason is no longer a shortage of good players but rather a failure of management (KAHHHHHHHHN!) or purposefully bottoming out (the Knicks of recent seasons).
Realistically, contraction would present more of a competitive problem than it would solve. Of the first franchises on the chopping block, two would likely be New Orleans and Sacramento - how does the league go about reassigning the marquee assets of those teams (CP3, DMC, Tyreke)? All of a sudden the Clippers add Paul to Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon virtually for free? You think this ISN'T what the league would like to see happen?
In actuality, this is merely Stern-Bot 2k11 threatening the NBAPA with 30-60 fewer jobs if they don't cave to the owners demands. Similar to the claimed 33% reduction in salary, it's a bargaining position and likely nothing more. As to what actually happens to next season, I think Etats360 outlined the most likely scenario a few weeks ago:
Here's what will happen:
1. Owners hold off as long as possible to start negotiations, so that the min salary players start to panic
2. Around July-ish, the owners purposely bring unreasonable demands to the table so as to gain leverage in negotiations. At the same time, the NBAPA starts using the media to try and influence public opinion in their favor. This will come in the form of leaking false rumors and twitter sympathy.
3. NBAPA refuses to budge to the unreasonable demands. The owners call for a lockout.
4. All the players who are desperate for money (and comprise a majority of the NBAPA), beg the NBAPA to come to a resolution as fast as possible. This is expedited when the owners set a deadline to cancel the entire season.
5. The NBAPA and owners reach an agreement, which includes a hard cap, salary reductions on existing contracts, and raising the min salary. The shortened season begins around late January.
The only thing I'd add to point 4 is that the owners costs go down dramatically during a lockout, whereas the players (cars, houses, child support, entourages) likely do not.
---
Moving on to 7 team league pass, JOA grabbed the following list of "non League Pass Broadband games" (ABC, ESPN, TNT, NBATV) to demonstrate which teams are best value for money if one is choosing the "7 team" package for league pass broadband:
Boston: 33
Miami Heat: 29
Orlando: 29
LA Lakers: 27
Chicago: 27
Thunder: 25
Suns: 25
Dallas: 24
Spurs 23
Blazers: 21
Knicks: 18
Jazz: 17
Hawks: 14
Clipper: 12
Rockets: 11
Bucks 8
Hornets: 7
Kings: 7
Grizzlies: 6
with a few not listed. The best values in terms of entertainment + most games would be Clips, Bucks, Warriors, Kings, Wizards, Hornets and either Grizzlies or Jazz in my opinion.
---
Finally, we talked at some length about the LBJ commercial:
For me, this is a really good commercial and getting a little further in depth (hopefully for the last time), it does make sort of sideways glances at a few important points:
1) For all the hate he's gotten this summer, he didn't actually do anything. Yeah, "The Decision" was poor in conception and douchey in execution, but he's not an actual criminal, like Mike Vick, Big Ben* or Kobe* have been before him. Nor does he have obvious and severe issues a la Tiger (no way we know even close to the whole story on that, but that's a whole other topic). So, "what do you want me to do?" is a perfectly reasonable question for him to ask. I he had stayed in Cleveland, dollars to donuts, the same people ripping him for "ring chasing" would be ripping him for not caring about winning. Had he gone to New York, it would have been chasing "global icon" status. In short, ESPN is the GOAT LeBron troll.
* allegedly though we can't talk about it due to a sealed private settlement in a civil suit.
2) That said, there's a middle ground between "stop listening to my friends" and abdicating his decisions to the Nike marketing department. Assuming that his lifelong friends are real and absolutely have LeBron's best interests at heart, that loyalty is not a perfect substitute for experience and expertise. With some trusted professional guidance, "The Decision" could have come off a lot better. For example, if he really was making his announcement that way "for the kids," why not involve the kids? The optics of the whole situation change if it's one or a procession of 15 year-olds tossing him the same softball questions Jim Gray did. As noted above, haters were going to hate, but that doesn't mean he had to do things in a way sure to promote maximal ire.
3) Really, who the hell is anyone else to tell him he's wrong for deciding to play for championships with D-Wade, Bosh and the merry band of redshirts? While you or I or MJ or Bill Simmons or whoever may have done things differently, it's his choice to make, and until we've walked a mile in shoes, it's just like, our opinion, man.
4) Finally, speaking of MJ, the playful shot at Charles Barkley with the "not a role model" and the pink donut is pretty obvious. Less obvious and harder hitting was the shot at MJ's horrifically bitter Hall-of-Fame induction speech. A welcome reminder that Michael was no prince, but the media in his day was largely sycophantic, with the closest thing to being a hater was Sam Smith. Rereading The Jordan Rules it's like a Suzy Kolber puff piece compared to the lunatic ravings of Skip Bayless, et al that Lebron has to deal with. So again, LBJ probably has some grounds to ask of MJ "who the fuck do you think you are to tell me how to live?"
---
So that's what you missed, hopefully we get the technology better next time.
Castzilla #2: 2010-2011 Game Previews (10/26)
Castzilla #2: 2010-2011 - Game Previews (10/26)
In this episode, tarheeljks and I preview the three games for tonight - Rockets/Lakers, Suns/Blazers, and of course, Heat/Celtics. We discuss what we're looking for in the first game of the season out of these teams
As always, if you want to catch up on previous CZs you can check out the Castzilla Archive.
In this episode, tarheeljks and I preview the three games for tonight - Rockets/Lakers, Suns/Blazers, and of course, Heat/Celtics. We discuss what we're looking for in the first game of the season out of these teams
As always, if you want to catch up on previous CZs you can check out the Castzilla Archive.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Castzilla Archive
Here's a link to every one of the CastZillas created. This will be updated as we go along, along with a new post for every upcoming CastZilla.
Unless we change webhosts, all CastZillas are hosted on archive.org. There you can stream them or download them and manually add them to your mp3 player if you want to listen in the car.
2010-2011
Episode 1
Episode 2
2009-2010
Episode 13
Episode 12
Episode 11
Episode 9
Episode 8.5 - Part 1 - Part 2 - these were hosted by Bobbo
Episode 8
Episode 7
Episode 6
Episode 5 (Long)
Episode 4
Episode 3
Episode 2
Episode 1
*Episode 10 is either lost, or never existed at all. C'est la vie.
Unless we change webhosts, all CastZillas are hosted on archive.org. There you can stream them or download them and manually add them to your mp3 player if you want to listen in the car.
2010-2011
Episode 1
Episode 2
2009-2010
Episode 13
Episode 12
Episode 11
Episode 9
Episode 8.5 - Part 1 - Part 2 - these were hosted by Bobbo
Episode 8
Episode 7
Episode 6
Episode 5 (Long)
Episode 4
Episode 3
Episode 2
Episode 1
*Episode 10 is either lost, or never existed at all. C'est la vie.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
SirOsis Photoshops 10/10 - 10/16
If you follow TZ regularly, you know SirOsis regularly posts some good photoshops. I've archived the three from this week. Click on the link in the caption and you'll be able to find the original post in context of the thread if you want to hunt around.
TZ Negotiated Over/Unders
A while back KBFC and Bobbofitos "negotiated" over/unders for teams. They kept increasing win bids until one person would decide to take the under. Later kidcolin and ClarkNasty did the same thing.
Edit: KidPClark did it first and now Clark is whining about it. So there.
Clark put together a handy table that kept track of them all. That post is found here, but I've reproduced the table after the jump.
Edit: KidPClark did it first and now Clark is whining about it. So there.
Clark put together a handy table that kept track of them all. That post is found here, but I've reproduced the table after the jump.
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